Sunday 7/14/2019

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We got the first CFL over pretty easily yesterday but the second one falls a point short and we split it down the middle on Saturday.  The big bounce back week will have to wait until next week but we can still pull some back and generate some needed momentum with a win here and we will finish the week off in the WNBA when the Minnesota Lynx take on the Phoenix Mercury at the Target Center in Minneapolis, Minnesota.  The Mercury completely fell apart in the second half against the Sun in Connecticut on Friday, they looked completely gassed and were outscored 20-3 out of the locker room after leading at halftime and it’s just hard to believe this team will have much left in the tank for what will be their third road game in five days here.  Minnesota has been far better than expected this season, Napheesa Collier has filled in admirably with Maya Moore taking the year off and the Lynx have won five of their last seven games and currently sit in second place in the West at 9-7.  Minnesota is always one of those teams we look to play against on the road but play on at home, this season the Lynx are 5-3 on this floor but all three of those losses were over a month ago when the Lynx were still trying to get organized after losing a number of key players and now that the Lynx have it somewhat figured out we see them in a great spot to pick up another home win against a tired Mercury team tonight.  The Mercury finally got Diana Taurasi back on Friday but she only played 16 minutes and scored five points so Taurasi will hardly be up to full speed here.  The Sparks were in a similar situation a few weeks ago when they got their superstar Candace Parker back where it almost worked to their detriment because it took Parker a couple games to go at full speed and we see that being the case as Taurasi works her way back to her usual minutes over the next week or so.  If Taurasi is going to be on the court they need her to score because that’s what DeWanna Bonner has been doing for the Mercury all season and outside of Britney Griner and Bonner the Mercury haven’t really had a third consistent scoring option.  Bonner still put up 20 against the Sun on Friday but there’s no question Taurasi’s return will cut into the number of looks Bonner is getting so if Taurasi isn’t scoring it’s going to be tough for the Mercury to score enough to win games.  Taurasi, like Parker, is one of the best to ever play in this league so she and the Mercury will ultimately be fine but just two night’s ago Taurasi looked like she was playing at about half speed so it’s unlikely she’s able to do much more less than 48 hours later.  These two teams played on this floor earlier this season and it ended with a 58-56 Minnesota win but the Lynx led by as many as 16 in that game and dominated for most of the contest and we wouldn’t be all that surprised if they held the upper hand most of the way against a Mercury team that has to be completely gassed at this point.  Not only did the Mercury play road games on Wednesday and Friday but they made the cross country trip for an early game on Wednesday that the Mercury really gave a max effort to beat one of the best teams in the league and followed it up having to play a very good Sun team on national television on Friday night.  Tough travel spot here to have to go from Connecticut to Minnesota and they know they have a very winnable home game against the Wings on Wednesday night so this really could just be one of those spots where the Mercury aren’t really up for the type of game they will need to play to win on the road in Minnesota and if that’s the case it should show in the final result.  At this point it’s old news that the Lynx are without Maya Moore and Seimone Augustus, it’s also been about 10 games since Jessica Shepard went down with an injury so right now its more about what the Lynx have been playing with all season and that’s the trio of Odyssey Sims, Sylvia Fowles and Napheesa Collier that have proven to be as good as just about any team in this league.  The Lynx lost a tough road game last time out in Atlanta and had won three straight to that point.  The  Lynx haven’t lost back to back games since early June and what we see here is a team that is trending in the right direction and has a great chance to pick up what really could be considered a marquee win on their home floor. The Mercury are just in a really tough travel spot here playing their third road game in five days and until Taurasi is back to her usual self the Mercury will be overrated in the market as long as she is playing.  The betting public has bet this one down because they see the Mercury with Taurasi back getting points but, as we have discussed all season, the betting public is as uninformed as they are in any sport when it comes to WNBA.  Minnesota is great at home, they are in a fantastic spot and we will go ahead and make a big play on a cheap money line here as the Lynx get it done at home tonight.  Play on Lynx -120 TO WIN 5 units **(Please note we are risking 6 units here to win 5 units)